CHOICES
A publication of AAEA
The United States has historically maintained a strong agricultural trade surplus, positioning itself as a key player in global food supply chains and a driver of economic growth. This surplus reached a record high of $40 billion in 2011, fueled by robust exports of both bulk commodities and high-value agricultural products (Blundell, Devadoss, and Luckstead, 2025). These exports, fueled by production increases, underscored the United States’ leadership in international agrifood markets.
However, recent trends signal a sharp reversal in this historical trajectory. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS), the United States in 2019 recorded its first agricultural trade deficit since 1967. This deficit has widened significantly, reaching $16.7 billion in fiscal year 2023 and nearly doubling to $31.8 billion in fiscal year 2024 (Kaufman, Jiang, and Williams, 2025) (Figure 1). Forecasts for 2025 anticipate an even larger trade deficit, with exports expected to fall to $170.5 billion and imports projected to rise to $219.5 billion, resulting in an unprecedented $49 billion agricultural trade deficit (Kaufman et al., 2025). Although the United States remains both a major exporter and importer of agricultural products, the decline in its trade surplus has become more acute in recent years. As this downward trend continues, the United States’ traditional role as an agricultural export leader is increasingly under scrutiny.
This dramatic reversal is particularly striking given the United States’ longstanding history of maintaining an agricultural trade surplus, with the only prior periods of near-balance occurring between 2004 and 2006, when the surplus briefly dropped to single-digit figures, the lowest since 1973. Mattson and Koo (2005) identified two primary drivers of this erosion: a weakening trade position with the European Union and a significant rise in imports of horticultural and consumer-oriented products, particularly fresh and processed vegetables. Thus, the fresh vegetable sector, which has seen a markedincrease in import dependence over the past several decades, has become one of the leading sectors contributing to the US agricultural trade deficit.
The composition of the US fresh vegetable trade has undergone a marked transformation over the past 5 decades. While the United States briefly achieved a trade surplus in fresh vegetables in 1975, 1976, and again in 1992, the overall trend has been one of persistent and widening trade deficits. Although the United States has long been a net importer of fresh vegetables, the magnitude of this deficit has grown substantially in recent decades, reaching billions of dollars annually.
Between 1970 and 2024, US imports of nonstaple fresh vegetables expanded from $0.15 billion to $12.96 billion, an increase of over 86-fold, while exports increased from $0.05 billion to $2.59 billion, or about 52-fold. For this analysis, potatoes are excluded so that we focus on non-staple vegetables, which represent a distinct and increasingly influential component of the overall deficit. The disparity in growth rates has driven a sustained trade gap that has grown especially since the early 2000s. In fact, the trade deficit in fresh vegetables began exceeding the billion-dollar threshold in 2001 and continued to rise each year. As of 2024, the United States recorded a net trade deficit of $10.37 billion in fresh vegetables, with imports totaling $12.96 billion and exports reaching only $2.59 billion (see Figure 2).
This trend reflects a deeper structural disparity in trade flows. As illustrated in Figure 2, imports began to outpace exports noticeably in the mid-1990s and continued to rise steeply through 2024. In contrast, exports remained relatively flat over the same period, resulting in a sharp decline in trade balance, particularly more pronounced since the early 2000s.
Importantly, this growing reliance on foreign suppliers has not been offset by improved export performance. This suggests that US domestic production has failed to keep pace with rising consumer demand for fresh vegetables. Several factors may explain this lag, including seasonal production constraints, persistent labor shortages, and rising production costs that reduce the competitiveness of US growers relative to international suppliers.
Shifts in consumer demand have shaped the course of the fresh vegetable sector in the United States. According to data from the USDA’s Food AvailabilityData System (2024), per capita availability of freshvegetables rose significantly in the latter half of the 20thcentury. The USDA defines per capita availability as the total annual food supply divided by the US resident population (including military personnel overseas), which provides an indirect measure of average supply rather than direct consumption. In 1970, the average American had access to 154.4 pounds of fresh vegetables annually through retail channels. This figure climbed steadily over the subsequent decades, reaching a peak of 204.4 pounds in 2004. This upward trend coincided with a period of rising fresh vegetable consumption, supported by economic growth and favorable weather conditions that enhanced production and availability (Lucier and Plummer, 2004).
However, this growth has not remained consistent. More recent data indicate a reversal in this trend. Davis et al. (2025) report fresh vegetable availability per capita at 148 pounds in 2024, 5 pounds lower than the previous year and nearly 9 pounds below the 3-year average. This recent drop in per capita availability is a result of supply-side changes in the US vegetable industry, rather than a direct lack of availability at the retail level. The decline suggests that domestic production has slowed down in comparison to the expansion of demand, and imports are increasingly making up for the US output deficit. A reduction in domestic production has limited the ability of the US domestic supply to meet consumer demand (Davis et al., 2025). While demand for fresh vegetables, especially those that are diverse, perishable, and available year-round, has increased, domestic production capacity has struggled to keep pace. This trend is projected to continue in the coming years, emphasizing the declining relevance of US domestic production in global supply conditions. Fresh-market vegetables, which represented 32% of total vegetable production in 2022, are projected to account for just 30% by 2033, as imports increasingly supply most of the future demand (Dohlman et al., 2025).
This imbalance is further reflected in shifting consumer preferences, particularly the increasing demand for organic produce. Organic vegetables and fruits have become the leading category within the organic food market, with sales exceeding $22 billion in 2022 and accounting for over one-third of total organic food sales (Skorbiansky, Carlson, and Spalding, 2023). This trend reflects not only consumers' growing health and sustainability concerns but also the increasing complexity of addressing specialized market demand in a production system already constrained by labor and cost pressures.
Meanwhile, US producers face mounting production challenges that further erode competitiveness. As Huang, Guan, and Hammami (2022) explain, fresh vegetable crops are both labor-intensive and perishable, making them especially vulnerable to labor shortages and rising input costs. Domestic growers have struggled to secure sufficient labor during critical harvest periods (Devadoss and Luckstead, 2008; Devadoss and Gautam, 2025), while escalating wages have further squeezed already tight profit margins. In contrast, producers in many developing countries benefit from lower labor costs and more flexible agricultural workforces, providing them with a significant cost advantage in global markets. These disparities have intensified international competition and contributed to the erosion of the US market share in fresh produce.
Collectively, these trends illustrate the broader pressures shaping the US vegetable trade balance: expanding consumer demand, structural production limitations, labor market constraints, and global cost disparities. The result is a deepening reliance on imports to meet domestic needs, one that exposes the fresh vegetable sector to increasing external vulnerability and raises critical questions about the long-term sustainability of US agricultural competitiveness.
The fresh vegetable industry faces mounting global competition in addition to stagnating domestic production and evolving consumer demand. As the fresh vegetable trade deficit deepens, understanding the underlying causes is critical to formulating effective policy responses.
Figure 3 compares the net trade balances of four major US agricultural commodity groups: fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, major meats, and major grains. The divergence in trade performance, over the period from 1970 to 2024, across these sectors reveals critical imbalances within the broader US agrifood system.
Fresh vegetables have exhibited a pronounced and sustained decline in net trade over the past 5 decades. Although the sector maintained a relatively balanced position from the 1970s through the early 1990s, the onset of the 2000s marked the beginning of a persistent and widening trade deficit. By 2024, the fresh vegetable trade deficit had deepened considerably, with an overall net trade decline of 19% from 1970 to 2024. This reflects growing reliance on imports as domestic production capacity increasingly fails to keep pace with evolving consumer demand.
Fresh fruits demonstrate an even steeper decline, with a total net trade reduction of 28% between 1970 and 2024. Similar to vegetables, the fruit sector faces structural constraints, such as perishability, seasonal production variability, and high labor intensity, that make it especially vulnerable to rising import competition and domestic supply limitations.
In contrast, the trade performance of major meats and grains reflects a more favorable trajectory. Net trade in major meats grew by 7.6% over the period, while grains outpaced all other categories with a 20.9% increase. These gains are largely attributable to the United States’ comparative advantages in capital-intensive, large-scale production systems, higher feed conversion efficiency, and sustained export development supported by trade agreements and technological innovation (Davis et al., 2013).
The widening gap between surplus-generating sectors (grains and meats) and deficit-prone sectors (vegetables and fruits) highlights a structural divide within US agriculture. While grains and meats benefit from mechanization, durable supply chains, and stable global demand, fresh produce industries face mounting challenges, ranging from labor shortages to global competition and limited mechanization options. This disparity in net trade performance underscores the need for policy approaches that account for the unique vulnerabilities of the fresh produce sector, particularly as the United States becomes increasingly dependent on foreign suppliers for fruits and vegetables.
The United States’ increasing reliance on imported fresh vegetables has significant implications for agricultural trade policy and the resilience of domestic production. In 2021, nearly 38% of all fresh vegetables consumed in the United States were imported, with Mexico firmly established as the dominant supplier (Zahniser, 2023;Khanal, Poudel, and Gopinath, 2024). By 2020, Mexico accounted for approximately 77% of US fresh vegetable imports by volume, while Canada contributed another 11% (Davis and Lucier, 2021).
The centrality of Mexico and Canada in the US fresh vegetable trade is evident in current import and export patterns. As shown in Figure 4, Mexico accounted for 71% of all US fresh vegetable imports in 2024, while Canada contributed another 18%, together supplying nearly 90% of US imports. Conversely, Figure 5 illustrates that Canada received 77% of all US fresh vegetable exports because Canada lacks an adequate summer growing season for vegetables, followed by Mexico at 11%.
These figures underscore the highly regionalized nature of US vegetable trade, shaped largely by the evolution of North American trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The concentration of trade with these two partners reflects both the benefits and vulnerabilities of regional integration, particularly in a sector that is labor-intensive, seasonal, and increasingly import-dependent.
Both Mexican and Canadian producers have expanded their share of the US market by offering greenhouse-grown and organic vegetables, thus broadening the range of options available to American consumers (Khanal, Poudel, and Gopinath, 2024). While conventionally grown produce still dominates trade flows, the rising volume of organic and greenhouse imports has extended the reach of foreign growers in US retail channels.
Outside of Mexico and Canada, the fresh vegetable trade in the United States is more irregular and typically reflects seasonal or specialized roles rather than extensive supply changes. Countries such as Peru, Guatemala, and China collectively account for only a small share of total US import volume. On the export side, a similar pattern emerges where nearly four-fifths of US fresh vegetable exports go to Canada and Mexico, and smaller shares are shipped to markets such as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Taiwan.
Over the past 3 decades, the volume and share of imported fresh vegetables have grown steadily, even asdomestic production of many of the same commodities has declined. Among the most influential forces has been trade liberalization, particularly through agreements such as NAFTA and USMCA. These agreements reduced tariffs, dismantled nontariff barriers, and facilitated deeper economic integration across North America. While they have enhanced product availability and reduced costs for domestic consumers, they have also intensified competitive pressures on domestic producers. Rising labor costs, regulatory burdens, and limited access to seasonal farmworkers are placing significant pressure on US vegetable producers (Simnitt and Martin, 2022; Ferdon, 2023). In response, many growers are reducing domestic production, increasing reliance on imports, or turning to mechanization and guest worker programs to remain competitive in a rapidly changing agricultural landscape (Charlton et al., 2019).
The implementation of NAFTA in 1994 marked a turning point in regional agricultural trade. Since its inception, trade among the United States, Canada, and Mexico has more than tripled, growing at a faster rate than US trade with the rest of the world (Chatzky, McBride, and Sergie, 2020). Today, approximately one-third of all US goods exports are destined for Canada and Mexico, underscoring the strength of these trading relationships. Conversely, agricultural imports from Canada and Mexico have increased substantially under NAFTA, with Mexico in particular consolidating its position as the top supplier of fresh vegetables to the US market.
The case of tomatoes offers a particularly illustrative example. Between 2009 and 2019, Mexican tomato exports to the United States rose by 62% in volume and 76% in value, reaching nearly $2 billion annually by 2019
(Li et al., 2022). This increase occurred despite ongoing trade disputes and the imposition of voluntary export restraints under the US–Mexico Suspension Agreement (Kosse and Devadoss, 2016). Often referred to as the “tomato war,” this long-standing dispute traces back to the 1960s and reflects persistent concerns among US tomato producers regarding the price-depressing effects of low-cost Mexican imports (Kosse, Devadoss, and Luckstead, 2014). The Suspension Agreement established a minimum import price for Mexican tomatoes, but Mexican growers adapted by shifting from field-grown to greenhouse production, thereby improving cost efficiencies and year-round supply capacity (Kosse and Devadoss, 2016).
Although the USMCA introduced new provisions aimed at addressing specific trade concerns, such as strengthened labor standards and dispute resolution mechanisms, many of the core structural challenges facing US vegetable producers remain unresolved. Domestic growers continue to grapple with rising labor costs (Zhao, Devadoss, and Luckstead, 2020), stricter environmental regulations (e.g., limitations on the use of methyl bromide), and persistent difficulty in securing sufficient labor during critical harvest periods (Gautam and Devadoss, 2025). Given the labor-intensive nature of vegetable production, these factors have placed US growers at a competitive disadvantage relative toMexican producers (Devadoss and Luckstead, 2008).
Taken together, these changes highlight the complicated consequences of trade liberalization in the fresh vegetable market. While trade agreements like NAFTA and the USMCA have increased market integration and consumer access to low-cost produce, they have also exposed domestic producers to greater foreign competition. Addressing these disparities would necessitate a more tailored policy that weighs trade efficiency against the future viability of US vegetable production. US farmers also need to adapt by mechanizing their farm operations.
During the 2018 Trump administration, tariff policy emerged as a central economic and political instrument, targeting major trade partners with high import tariffs. Existing literature on the 2018–2019 tariff wave (e.g., Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein, 2019; Fajgelbaum et al., 2020) finds that nearly the entire burden of these tariffs was passed through to US consumers and importers rather than being absorbed by foreign exporters. This full passthrough contributed to significant price increases, disruptions in sourcing strategies, and estimated welfare losses exceeding $22 billion, including approximately $14 billion in tariff revenues paid by US importers, which are ultimately passed down to US consumers (Amiti, Redding, and Weinstein, 2019).
Cavallo et al. (2021) further emphasize that even if retail prices did not always rise immediately, businesses had to reorganize sourcing, adjust product lines, and absorb input cost increases. This especially impacts perishable imports like vegetables, where substitutes are limited and retailers pass on the costs quickly to consumers. Zhao, Devadoss, and Luckstead (2020) caution that although increased tariffs on key trading partners like Mexico and Canada could temporarily boost US vegetable production, labor shortages and higher input costs would undermine long-term sustainability in fresh produce production.
He (2025) estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexican vegetable imports would result in an average 7.8% price increase, with sharper spikes for heavily imported vegetables such as avocados, peppers, and cucumbers. These price hikes would disproportionately affect middle-income families and consumers in produce-scarce regions like the Midwest and Central Plains, where domestic alternatives may be limited (He, 2025). The effects would be even more severe for lower-income families, who already fall short of USDA-recommended fruit and vegetable consumption due to affordability barriers (Young and Stewart, 2022). Further price hikes could deepen existing nutritional disparities and limit access to healthy foods.
Recent evidence on grocery price passthrough suggests that tariff shocks are transmitted quickly to retail prices for perishable foods, with passthrough rates varying by product and the availability of substitutes. Using a structural gravity simulation, He, Naing, and Devadoss (2025) estimated that a uniform 25% tariff on Mexican fresh vegetable imports would reduce import quantities for most major items by roughly 29%–31% and import values by 36%–39%, implying significant upward pressure on wholesale and retail prices as supply tightens.
From trade disruption to consumer welfare losses, Trump 1.0’s tariff record now serves as a roadmap for what may lie ahead under the Trump 2.0 tariff agenda, which is already taking shape through a series of on-again-off-again tariff announcements. As of this writing, Trump planned to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico. If this tariff also applies to USMCA-compliant products, then these tariffs will limit vegetable imports from Mexico and will increase the retail prices to consumers. While empirical studies on the new tariff cycle are still emerging, the 2018–2019 period provides a critical lens through which to anticipate the likely impacts, particularly in vulnerable sectors such as fresh vegetables, where supply shocks and labor intensity heighten exposure to policy volatility.
While the United States continues to be a major agricultural exporter, the sector’s internal composition has grown increasingly unbalanced. The fresh vegetable sector, due to its labor intensity, seasonality, and limited mechanization, has increasingly faced competition from imports. Imports have steadily outpaced exports, and the divergence has been driven by lagging domestic production, rising labor costs, lack of comparative advantage, and expanded market access through trade liberalization under agreements such as NAFTA and USMCA.
The return of tariff escalation under Trump’s second term, exemplified by the planned tariffs on Mexican imports, raises urgent concerns about the stability and affordability of fresh vegetable markets. Such measures threaten to elevate consumer prices, which are already high. Recent tariff policies have strained long-standing trade relationships with major partners like Mexico and Canada, which together account for nearly 90% of US fresh vegetable imports. Given their central role in the nation’s produce supply, new tariffs could further inflame retail price volatility, particularly for perishable goods with limited domestic substitutes.
Though the trade deficit in a particular sector, and in fact total national trade deficit itself, is not an indicator of a country’s well-being, widespread negative trade balance in many sectors triggers concerns for policymakers. As the US agricultural trade environment continues to evolve, policymakers must carefully weigh the alleged short-term consequences of protectionist policies against the long-term dangers of supply chain fragility, trade retaliation, and consumer burden. While maintaining the economic benefits of regional trade, strengthening domestic vegetable production would require strategic investments in mechanization, more legal foreign-born workers, and sustainable agricultural production methods. Without targeted adjustments, the US fresh vegetable trade deficit is expected to deepen further, reinforcing the sector’s vulnerability within an increasingly volatile and politically sensitive global trade system.
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