CHOICES
A publication of AAEA
Florida’s agriculture has long been defined by its iconic citrus crops. However, persistent challenges, notably catastrophic citrus greening disease, have devastated the once-thriving juice industry (Li et al., 2020). The acreage of bearing citrus trees has nearly halved, plunging from 750,000 acres at the turn of the century to a mere 369,300 acres in 2021 (Cruz et al., 2024). Despite concerted efforts and significant investments, a definitive cure for citrus greening remains out of reach (Thompson, 2021). This decline has driven the agricultural sector to search for new viable alternatives. This search is further fueled by growing foreign competition in conventional crop sectors (Hammami et al., 2024; Huang et al., 2022; Li et al., 2022, Suh et al., 2017), which continues to pressure domestic producers and drive interest in alternative crops.
Enter the craft breweries. The growth of this industry has ignited a significant interest in local hops cultivation. While the Southeast has been venturing into the production of hops, the region presents its unique set of challenges. Undeterred, researchers remain committed to innovation, diving into trials to address these production challenges, which has drawn significant media attention. ABC Action News Tampa Bay speculated on hops potentially succeeding citrus in the foreseeable future (Rojas, 2021).
The buy-local movement, in particular, has kindled hope among hop growers. It resonates strongly with both consumers and businesses, emphasizing the positive community impact and potential of locally grown products. While the idea of locally grown hops presents opportunities, it is crucial to recognize the challenges of growing this crop and developing a local supply chain in Florida.
So emerges the pivotal question: Can hops be grown in Florida, and how far will this local hops movement go? Delving into these questions, this article highlights thepotential and pitfalls of the local movement. It begins by examining the craft brewery industry, then explores the buy-local movement through the lens of supply chainintricacies, and finally discusses the challenges and barriers Florida’s hops movement faces, revealing how the Florida case reflects a broader pattern: enthusiasm for local movements ultimately must reckon with economic reality.
The Brewers Association provides a specific set of criteria for what constitutes a craft brewery. According to their definition, a craft brewery must be
• “small,” producing fewer than 6 million barrels annually
• “independent,” and
• “traditional.”
As depicted in Figure 1, the growth trajectory of the craft brewery sector began its upward climb in the early 2010s. While the number of US craft breweries has surged, witnessing a robust 17% annual increase over the past decade, sales growth has decelerated noticeably in recent years.
Notably, craft breweries now account for approximately 12% of the beer market, as shown in Figure 2. Dominating the beer market, large domestic noncraft breweries and imports command 68% and 20% of annual sales, respectively. It’s also worth highlighting the shift in consumer preferences during the 2020 pandemic, with packaged beer sales outpacing those of beer on draught (Brewers Association, 2021).
Consistent with the national trend, the craft brewery industry has witnessed significant growth in Florida. Driven by the growth of population and the tourism industry, the number of Florida craft breweries in operation nearly grew rapidly, reaching an unprecedented count of 368 in 2020 (Brewers Association, 2020b). Figure 3 shows this trend by illustrating the surge in brewery licenses issued over the past two decades.
While the number of breweries has soared, total production has seen a downturn in recent years as shown in Figure 4. Despite this, Florida’s craft beeroutput remains impressive on the national stage, rankingfourth with a production volume of 1.2 million barrels (Figure 4). This significant output continues to attract interest in cultivating local hops. As the Florida craft beer industry burgeons, the question arises: Can Florida cultivate and supply its own hops to meet this growing demand?
Recent data showcases evolving patterns in US beerconsumption, where per capita intake averages 26.1gallons annually. Delving deeper into the demographics, the millennial generation emerges as a pivotal segment.
They represent the largest fraction of craft beerenthusiasts, a fact that bodes well for the sustained consumption of craft beer in the coming years (Bronnenberg et al. 2021). Notably, there was a significant uptick in this demographic’s beer consumption, with the percentage climbing nearly 10% to 44% from 2015 to 2020. This trend aligns with projections indicating a bullish outlook for alcoholic sales in the country (National Beer Wholesalers Association, 2021).
With the craft beer industry’s expansion, both nationally and in Florida, the focus naturally shifts to the foundational ingredient that defines beer’s unique flavor profile: hops. Hops play a pivotal role in imparting both bitterness and a distinct aroma profile to the brew (Hop Growers of America, 2021). Yet, while their influence is widespread in brewing, the cultivation of hops in the United States remains heavily centralized. A staggering 99% of the nation’s hops production is rooted in the Pacific Northwest.
Shifting hops cultivation from this established hub in the Pacific Northwest to the South is a major challenge. This transition, with its obstacles and opportunities, can be best understood through a supply chain lens. Figure 5 provides a structured breakdown of the local hops supply chain, capturing every stage from production to sale. The production phase, while demanding tangible inputs like specific cultivars and fertilizers, also relies on intangible factors like capital investment. Once cultivated, hops are often processed through drying and pelletizing, eventually used in the brewing phase. Finally, fresh brews are sold directly to consumers at breweries or packaged for retail. This graphical representation underscores the inherent challenges and opportunities of establishing a resilient local hops supply chain—complexities we delve deeper into in the sections that follow.
Hops need long periods of daylight, typically more than 16 hours a day during the growing season to stimulate vegetative growth. This prolonged exposure not only stimulates their vegetative growth but also facilitates the flowering process as the days shorten during summer. Latitude plays a pivotal role in determining daylength, and the Pacific Northwest, nestled between latitudes 40° and 50°, offers an ideal environment for hops (Sirrine, 2014). In contrast, Florida lies between approximately25° and 31° degrees latitude and only provides a maximum daylength of about 14 hours. Consequently, this daylength limitation has emerged as a paramount challenge for Florida growers. Research indicates that with supplemental LED lighting, the plants can be induced to produce flowers, potentially enhancing yields (Agehara, 2020).
Use of supplemental lighting also raises the possibility of continuous harvests from February to November in Florida. Spring emerges as the most productive season, followed by a modest fall harvest (Agehara et al. 2021). Yet, a significant challenge remains: Hops require aprolonged cold spell, specifically a minimum of 30 cumulative days below 40°F. This cold exposure allows the rhizomes to accumulate food reserves during winter (Sirrine, 2014). Given Florida’s warmer climate and extended two-season production cycle, fulfilling this chilling criterion becomes a challenge. Insufficient chilling can lead to weak and uneven hop growth (Holland et al. 2020).
Hops are broadly categorized into two types: alpha varieties, which infuse bitterness to the beer, and aroma varieties, introduced towards the end of the brewing cycle. The past decade has witnessed an expansive diversification in hop varieties. In 2021, the predominant varieties were ‘Citra R’, ‘Mosaic R’, ‘Cascade’, ‘SimcoeR’, and ‘Zeus (CTZ)’, collectively accounting for 53% of US acreage, as shown in Figure 6. The proprietary varieties, ‘Citra’ and ‘Mosaic’, have seen an astronomical rise in popularity, with their production increasing by 812% and 1,600%, respectively. Conversely, public varieties like ‘Cascade’, which previously dominated US hops production, have seen a decline.
This evolving market landscape presents a double-edged sword for producers. While it offers opportunities for differentiation and innovation, the limited adaptability of hop varieties to Florida’s climate presents hurdles.Preliminary findings suggest that among the varieties tested, ‘Cascade’ offers the most promising yield and quality in Florida (VSC News, 2021). However, with its waning popularity, there’s an imperative to foster new varieties that can not only thrive in Florida but also provide a competitive edge against Northwestern hops
The 2021 national average yield of hops is at 1,900 lb per acre (USDA-NASS, 2021a). Florida production trials demonstrated that even with two annual harvests, ‘Cascade’ hop yields (1,610 lb/acre) remained 15% below the national level (Gallardo et al. 2025).
Is hop cultivation profitable? A survey of Virginia commercial hop growers highlighted profitability to be one of the top challenges (Siegle and Scoggins, 2018). For growers, profitability hinges on the delicate balance between price and yield. Given that Florida’s hop cultivation incurs considerably higher production costs than the Pacific Northwest, the break-even point demands a price premium well above the national average.
Another crucial aspect to consider is the budget allocation by brewers. While hops are essential to craft beer production, they make up only about 3.5% of a brewer’s total expenses, significantly less than other inputs such as malting barley (Holland et al. 2020).
Hops cultivation, while offering potential benefits, comes with significant initial investments. With Florida still in its nascent stages of hops production, costs remainvariable. Establishing a hops farm means grappling with costs associated with trellis systems, irrigation, and crucially, supplemental lighting. These additional requirements push the initial costs in Florida to range from $15,780 to $18,687 per acre, depending on trellis specifications (Agehara et al. 2020). In stark contrast, the Pacific Northwest demands a considerably lower investment of around $8,095.50 per acre and an annual cost of approximately $10,648 per acre (Galinato, 2020).
Florida’s two-season production system could also mean higher input costs, especially for labor. Research indicates that the seasonal labor inputs vary between 292 and 320 hours for the spring and 323 and 334 hours per acre for the fall season using a harvester (Agehara et al. 2021). Hand-harvested hops may have even higher labor requirements. This is the biggest challenge yet encountered by hop growers in Florida.
In addition, Florida growers should expect a higher fertilization rate because of the extended season and the sandy soil with poor water and nutrient retention capacity (Acosta-Rangel et al. 2021). Limited knowledge of cultivars suited to the climatic conditions, and lack of information on potential pests and diseases could also adversely affect this crop (Desaeger, 2019).
The challenge of maintaining consistent quality often ties back to growers’ management practices. Fresh hops, for instance, come with the added pressure of a stringent delivery window. They need to be incorporated into the brewing process within a mere 24–36 hours post-harvest, emphasizing the importance of timely delivery and clear communication between growers and brewers (Holland et al. 2020). Because of the short shelf-life and the risks involved, growers must have clear communication with the brewers they sell to, to ensure the quality of the hops.
Florida’s distinct hot and humid climate further amplifies these challenges. Ensuring the harvest remains free from mold and spoilage becomes a task unto itself. The key to navigating these quality challenges lies in cultivating varieties tailored to Florida’s unique climate and refining best management practices. Compared to yield, achieving consistent quality might be the bigger hurdle for Florida’s hop growers.
Processing InfrastructureBeyond production challenges, Florida’s hops industry faces a significant bottleneck: the lack of processing and storage infrastructure. Yet most brewers are only equipped to use pelletized hops. Local breweries inTennessee (Best, 2019) and New York (Newbold and Thayer 2016) both indicated that most brewers are not equipped to accept wet or whole cones, therefore preferring pelletized hops (nearly 90%).
Pelletized hops are the most utilized form of hops by brewers because of their consistent performance, ease of storage, and longer shelf life. Yet the conversion from fresh hops to the pelletized form demands specific processing facilities. Additionally, to retain their quality, these hop pellets require climate-controlled storage, ideally at subfreezing temperatures. Proper packaging and storage can notably extend hops’ shelf life, ensuring brewers receive a quality product (Campbell and Pearson, 2018).
At the initial stage of developing this new industry, without such infrastructure, growers usually conduct on-farm drying and processing of hops before delivering them to brewers. While this vertical integration might seem like a solution, it brings its own set of challenges, notably increased complexity and production costs. Such conditions raise barriers to entry for prospective hop producers.
However, there’s a silver lining: If the market demand for hops in Florida increases and production proves profitable, the industry might witness the emergence of commercial processing and storage facilities, streamlining the supply chain from farm to brewery.
Pricing plays a pivotal role in determining the financial viability of hops cultivation. As Figure 7 illustrates, the average price growers receive for dry hops is around $6/lb (USDA-NASS, 2021a). It’s essential to note the heterogeneous nature of hops pricing, where variety and quality dictate the market rate. For example, the Lupulin Exchange reported spot prices for the most popular varieties such as ‘Citra’ and ‘Mosaic’ reached $30 and $25 per pound, respectively, during summer 2019 and are now typically between $7 and $10 per pound. In contrast, in the same year, spot prices for once-popular varieties like ‘Centennial’ and ‘Cascade’ dropped to $1–$2 per pound due to decreasing demand, with some growers reporting they had to dispose of their crop at the end of the year (Pappas, 2020). With no established pricing framework for local hops, the profitability for growers hinges significantly on brewers’ willingness to invest in locally grown hops.
In addition to the US craft brewery industry exhibiting a trend of slowing sales growth, there has been an increasing trend in hop stocks (Figure 8). The accumulated hop inventory—held by growers, dealers, and brewers alike—hit an all-time high, reaching 185 million pounds. In the face of reduced craft beer production growth, there’s a concerning alignment of increasing hop stocks and production, along with a declining hopping rate. This convergence suggests potential future market saturation and possibly, a diminished demand for hops.
The craft brewing industry witnessed a dip in the national average hopping rate in 2020, plummeting by 14% from the previous year to land at 1.46 lb per barrel (Brewers Association, 2020c). This indicates a waning inclination among craft brewers to utilize hops.
Using this rate of 1.46 lb per barrel as a benchmark, with Florida’s craft beer production standing at 1.2 million barrels annually, an estimated 1.75 million pounds of hops are used in the brewing process. In the absence of a mature processing infrastructure, it is unrealistic to expect local growers to meet this entire demand immediately. Drawing insights from a survey conductedamong New York brewers (Newbold and Thayer 2016), a substantial 88% of brewers preferred pelletized hops. This leaves a rather modest market slice of 12% for wet hops and dried whole cones. Applying this proportion to Florida and given an average yield of 1,610 pounds per acre, it is estimated that around 130 acres of hops could suffice to meet the demand for wet and dried whole hops.
Analyzing the hops market through the lens of the supply chain reveals a chain of challenges that must be addressed to pave the way for the sustained growth of local hops, as illustrated in Figure 9.
The primary hurdles for this local movement stem from production. The labor-intensive nature of hops cultivation poses a challenge in the face of labor shortages and escalating labor costs, especially as Florida’s minimum wage is set to reach $15 per hour by 2026. Further, there is a need for continued research on cultivars and management practices to increase productivity and ensure consistent product quality. While local sourcing can offer logistical cost savings and socio-economic value, the intrinsic “local” nature of most craft breweriesmeans that amplifying the local sourcing of hops mightnot necessarily translate into substantial increases in profit margins.
From the demand side, the decelerating growth of the US craft beer industry and plummeting hopping rates, coupled with swelling hop inventories, casts a shadow over future hop demand. Recent trends indicating a downturn in Florida’s craft beer production further amplify the uncertainty surrounding the demand for local hops.
In the long term, to achieve further market growth, commercial infrastructure will be needed to capture the pelletized hops market. Integration at the farm level will add more risks and associated costs to producers, widening the barrier to entry. But these may be resolved in the long run if there is large enough market demand and if the industry is financially viable.
Still, the central question remains: How far can “going local” really go? In the case of hops, the biological and climatic realities of Florida impose hard limits. Solutions such as artificial lighting could potentially work against the industry in terms of consumer perception, not to mention the added costs. The success of the local hop movement ultimately hinges on the financial viability of local production. Given the inherent environmental constraints, Florida and, more broadly, Southeastern growers grapple with heightened production challenges, leading to elevated production costs and less ideal yields. To remain economically viable, these higher costs mandate a corresponding price premium—one that depends on large enough brewers and consumers’ willingness to pay for local hops, a factor that could pose an additional challenge. Such challenges are not unique to the Florida hops movements. They often represent a broad pattern that characterizes the local movements.
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