Jason H. Grant and Sharon Sydow
U.S. agriculture has been caught in the crossfire of a multi-country, multi-product trade dispute. This theme reviews the current state of select U.S. agricultural commodity exports impacted by trade retaliation and offers a one-year comprehensive evaluation of observed impacts on markets, prices, farm programs, and trade flows.
Jason Grant, Shawn Arita, Charlotte Emlinger, Sharon Sydow and Mary A. Marchant
U.S. agriculture has been caught in the crossfire of a multi-country, multi-product trade dispute. This article reviews the current state of 2018–2019 U.S. agricultural trade and offers a one-year evaluation of the ex post impacts of retaliatory tariffs imposed by China, the European Union (EU), Turkey, Mexico, and Canada.
Joanna Hitchner, Keith Menzie, and Seth Meyer
This article reviews the impact of China’s tariffs on U.S. soybean imports on global soybean production, trade, and stock patterns. The discussion includes short-term and long-term impacts for U.S. and South American production, trade, and stocks.
Michael K. Adjemian, Shawn Arita, Vince Breneman, Rob Johansson, and Ryan Williams
China’s retaliatory tariff on soybeans depressed cash prices; increased demand for soybean storage, likely weakening the effectiveness of futures-based hedging strategies; and widened U.S. soybean basis, especially in the Upper Midwest, by effectively shutting off Pacific ports as a major export channel. Alternative foreign markets did not make up the difference.
Patrick Westhoff, Tracy Davids, and Byung Min Soon
Eliminating retaliatory tariffs would increase U.S. agricultural exports and commodity prices. Considering cross-commodity effects and impacts on production expenses and farm bill programs, the estimated impact on net farm income is about $5 billion in 2020, less than the value of market facilitation program payments in 2018 and 2019.
Andrew Muhammad, S. A. Smith, and Stephen MacDonald
Global trade and price data suggest that the U.S.–China trade dispute is having a negative impact on U.S. cotton prices and exports. China is replacing U.S. cotton with imports from Brazil, Australia, and other exporters to a lesser degree even as China’s total cotton imports have increased.
Daniel A. Sumner, Tristan Hanon, and William A. Matthews
Recent retaliatory trade measures have led to significant market disruptions for U.S. perennial crops, especially tree nuts. Export demand disruptions caused pronounced declines in some U.S. tree nut prices depending on the reliance of exports to affected markets, but the impacts may be masked by other supply or demand fluctuations.
Frank Kyekyeku Nti, Lindsay Kuberka, and Keithly Jones
This analysis examines how retaliatory tariffs affected U.S. and global pork trade over the past year and how other market developments—most notably the outbreak of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and other Asian countries—may have altered the impacts of retaliation on the U.S. pork sector.