Turmoil in Global Food, Agricultural, and Input Markets: Implications of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Jason Grant, Shawn Arita, and Wyatt Thompson
Aaron Smith
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a large shock for agricultural commodity markets, but not historically large. Its largest effects were focused on winter wheat and were expected not to persist much more than a year, but they came at a time when food commodity prices were already very high.
Christian Elleby, Ignacio Pérez Dominguez, Giampiero Genovese, Wyatt Thompson, Marcel Adenauer, and Hubertus Gay
Russia-Ukraine hostilities reduce agricultural commodities supplies, raising the specter of price increases and food insecurity among importing countries. We estimate the implications if the disruption continues several years into the future. We find persistent price impacts and negative importer food insecurity implications.
Xi He, Miguel Carriquiry, Amani Elobeid, Dermot Hayes, and Wendong Zhang
We use a modeling system to determine how the Russia-Ukraine conflict could impact global agricultural markets under four scenarios. We find the conflict could shift cropland from wheat, corn, and rice to barley and soybeans and increase U.S. export share in the pork, corn, and soybean markets.
Patrick Westhoff, Jarrett Whistance, Joseph Cooper, and Seth Meyer
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has resulted in higher prices for grains, oilseeds and other agricultural commodities and higher farm production expenses. Because of these offsetting effects, the impact on net farm income may be small. Consumer food prices are higher than they would have been without the war.
David W. Bullock, Prithviraj Lakkakula and William W. Wilson
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, had drastic impacts on agriculture, trade, and food grain prices. We assess prospective price impacts of additional grain flows from Ukraine to the international market with the reopening of Ukrainian ports using an equilibrium displacement model (EDM) and price distributions derived from the futures and option markets.
Jyson Beckman and Maros Ivanic
The agricultural sector has faced challenges in 2022. To consider how higher input prices and lower yields and export and labor supply shortages out of Russia and Ukraine might affect agricultural markets, this study uses computable general equilibrium modeling to estimate changes in prices, production, and trade.
