A publication of AAEA

A publication of AAEA
U.S.-China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts to Agriculture

U.S.-China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts to Agriculture

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Theme Overview: U.S.–China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts on Agriculture

Mary A. Marchant and H. Holly Wang

The U.S. and China have dueled in an escalating trade dispute since early 2018. This theme recaps tariff actions, emphasizing agriculture; reviews the importance of U.S.–China agricultural trade; and introduces a series of papers that examine the potential impacts of such tariffs.

Predicting Potential Impacts of China’s Retaliatory Tariffs on the U.S. Farm Sector

Yuqing Zheng, Dallas Wood, H. Holly Wang, and Jason P. H. Jones

In April 2018, China proposed import tariffs up to 25% on hundreds of U.S. products, including soybeans, cotton, sorghum, and pork. We analyze the potential impact of these tariffs on U.S. domestic prices, production, and economic welfare. U.S. exports to China could decrease as much as 83%.

Impacts of Possible Chinese 25% Tariff on U.S. Soybeans and Other Agricultural Commodities

Farzad Taheripour and Wallace E. Tyner

If China imposes a 25% tariff on U.S. agricultural products, after multi-year adjustments, U.S. exports of soybeans to China will drop 69%, costing the United States and China each $2.5 billion annually. With this tariff, Brazil will export 27% more soybeans to China and annually gain $2.1 billion.

Upheaval in China’s Imports of U.S. Sorghum

James Hansen, Mary A. Marchant, Wei Zhang, and Jason Grant

China’s recent policies on the sorghum market and imports of sorghum as a substitute for higher-priced domestic corn are discussed. Recent trade-restricting actions and reversals against imports of U.S. sorghum raise uncertainty for U.S. farmers, exporters, and Chinese importers.

Chinese Trade Retaliation May Diminish U.S. Wine Export Potential

Amanda M. Countryman and Andrew Muhammad

China responded to U.S. Section 232 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum by imposing retaliatory tariffs on 128 U.S.-sourced products, including wine. This article describes the current composition of the Chinese wine import market and the potential negative impacts of the retaliatory tariff on U.S. wine exports to China.

China’s Potential Cotton Tariffs and U.S. Cotton Exports: Lessons from History

Yangxuan Liu, John R. C. Robinson, and W. Donald Shurley

A Chinese import tariff on U.S. cotton could cause near-term market disruptions. But, recent history shows that Chinese cotton policy interventions have caused only a “reshuffling” in global cotton trade. Such an outcome could minimize the longer-term impacts of a potential Chinese tariff on U.S. cotton exports.